November 25, 2025
Gold and Silver Continue Their Record Run – Oil Remains Affordable
Developments of the year and a well-founded outlook: Read our experts’ analyses and forecasts on commodities here.
The 2026 Annual Outlook – Commodities
- Dr. Frank Schallenberger · Strategy / Macro Research
The year 2025 has been quite turbulent for several commodities. Gold, silver, and copper all reached new all-time highs, while oil prices temporarily dropped to their lowest levels in four years. The Bloomberg sector index for precious metals rose by more than 50% in the first ten months of the year, while base metals gained an average of around 15%. In contrast, energy commodities saw only a modest 2% increase.
Although precious metals saw slight corrections from mid-October onward, their rally is likely not over. Many key arguments in favor of gold and its peers remain valid: U.S. interest rates are expected to continue falling, questions persist about the future independence of the Federal Reserve and the stability of the U.S. dollar, and U.S. trade policy is likely to deliver more surprises to the markets in 2026.
The upward trend in base metals is also expected to continue next year. Growing industrial demand for products related to the green transition and AI investments should support this momentum – especially since various issues in mining production, particularly for copper, have strained supply in recent months.
Weak global economic growth is expected to keep oil demand in 2026 as subdued as it was this year. In addition, since April 2025, OPEC+ has significantly ramped up production in several stages. The cartel clearly prioritizes market share over price levels. As a result, a major supply surplus is looming in the oil market for the coming year. That means oil prices are unlikely to rise. That is good news for consumers, but bad news for OPEC+.
Commodity sectors show significantly different performance in 2025
Bloomberg Commodity Spot Subindices; indexed: 31.12.2024 = 100
Key questions from clients answered by our experts
Will silver be “the new gold” in 2026?
Since spring 2025, silver has outpaced gold significantly. The gold-to-silver ratio recently reached 80, its lowest level in the past twelve months. However, a continued outperformance of silver is rather unlikely. This is due to the weak global economy, which is expected to remain sluggish in 2026, and the fact that silver is highly dependent on industrial demand.
Whatever happened to “Drill baby, drill”?
Not much! U.S. frackers need a WTI price of around $65 for new drilling projects, but the current price of oil is significantly lower. In fact, U.S. oil production has stagnated since the beginning of the year, and the number of active drilling rigs has dropped by more than 13%. This means that “Drill, baby, drill” is likely to remain a non-starter in 2026 as well.
What is driving the current copper rally?
Robust demand for copper since January has recently been met with massive supply bottlenecks. The Grasberg mine in Indonesia, the world's third-largest copper mine, temporarily closed due to an accident. There are also disruptions in other countries. As a result, a significant market deficit is expected this year. Copper prices are likely to surpass $11,000 in 2026 at the latest.
Dr. Frank Schallenberger · Strategy / Macro Research
The 2026 Annual Outlook – eight topics in focus
The 2026 annual outlook – PDF download
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3.3 MB | 25.11.2025
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