November 25, 2025
The 2026 Annual Outlook: Choppy Waters Ahead
In the 2026 Annual Outlook, LBBW Research experts analyze the past year’s developments and provide a well-founded outlook.
The 2026 Annual Outlook
- Dr. Moritz Kraemer, Chief Economist and Head of Research
Last year, I promised you that turbulent times lay ahead – not just for companies but also for investors. And indeed, 2025 has been nothing short of a roller coaster ride. Still, the capital markets ultimately moved upward. Week after week brought record highs in equities and skyrocketing gold prices.
So much for looking in the rearview mirror. But what can we expect in the year ahead? I don’t say this lightly, but the waters are likely to become choppier. Towering above all uncertainties is Donald Trump, whose breathless tariff policies will continue to make it difficult for businesses to plan reliably in 2026. Could the president suddenly turn more placid and stop arbitrarily twisting the tariff screws? I wouldn’t hold my breath.
Meanwhile, growing concerns about a sovereign debt crisis are spreading ever more openly across markets. Here too, Washington plays a particularly unflattering role. However, I don’t share the fear that Trump could succeed in undercutting the Federal Reserve. Nevertheless, we at LBBW Research remain cautious. In particular, the stock markets appear to be priced for perfection. That’s why the pace in 2026 will likely be more subdued compared to the remarkable rally of the year now drawing to a close.
But amidst all these shadows, I do have one glimmer of hope to share: Germany should finally emerge from recession in 2026, thanks in large part to massive spending programs on defense and infrastructure.
For insights into the future of economic policy, business cycles, interest rates, equities, currencies, commodities, and real estate, the LBBW Research team has compiled this annual outlook for you. One thing is certain – it will be another year keeping us on our toes.
I wish you a rewarding read and, above all, a healthy and prosperous 2026.
Dr. Moritz Kraemer, Chief Economist and Head of Research
The 2026 Annual Outlook – PDF download
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3.3 MB | 25.11.2025
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