War and peace - Hope and fear

The "beast" inflation is back. The majority of indicators suggest price pressure, which is unlikely to reverse immediately even after the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, which is written in the stars. At the same time, the economy is being hit hard. The bad word "stagflation" is doing the rounds. Based on the experience of 2022/23, we do not expect the ECB to let inflation run its course with regard to the real economy. Unlike the Fed, it does not have a "dual mandate". Speaking of the Fed: When Kevin Warsh takes office, the financial markets will have to adjust to a new form of communication. Even if we do not see Warsh as a puppet of the US president, the markets could initially be in for some turbulent times.